Forecasts from EV Volumes suggest that electric vehicles will dominate Europe’s new EV market within the next two decades, with EVs projected to account for more than half of all light‑vehicle sales by 2030.
Near‑term outlook shows modest growth
In 2025 the European light‑vehicle market – encompassing passenger cars and light‑commercial vehicles – grew by just 0.9%. For 2026, EV Volumes now expects a 2.6% increase in Western and Central Europe, a notable rise from its earlier March estimate of 0.1%.
Even with that uptick, total light‑vehicle registrations are forecast at 15.5 million units, well short of the 18 million recorded in 2019. The agency does not anticipate a return to pre‑pandemic levels before 2040.
Sales are expected to climb again in 2027, but analysts warn that the trajectory will be shaped by a mix of regulatory demands and economic pressures. Small dips are slated for 2030 and 2035 as demand is pulled forward to 2029 and 2034, driven by stricter EU emissions targets.
Related: Austria’s electric car sales rise steadily
Policy shifts could accelerate EV adoption
Recent policy moves may reshape the market. In February 2026, the EU Commission adopted the End‑of‑Life Vehicles Regulation, compelling manufacturers to increase the use of recyclable or reusable materials in new cars and vans.
Another proposal under discussion would restrict subsidies and public procurement to EVs built in Europe with at least 70% locally sourced components. If enacted, such rules could further incentivize domestic production and boost EV sales.
On 16 December 2025, the European Commission unveiled its Automotive Package, revising the CO₂ reduction pathway for 2030‑2035. The package envisages a 90% cut in tailpipe emissions for passenger vehicles by 2035, down from an earlier 100% target, allowing the residual 10% to be offset through low‑carbon steel, e‑fuels, or biofuels.
These measures also introduce “super credits” for small, affordable EVs and a €1.8 billion battery support scheme aimed at strengthening the European battery value chain.
Related: German EV growth boosted by new models and brands
Assuming the proposed measures are implemented, EV Volumes projects that EVs will represent 56.7% of European light‑vehicle sales by 2030, rising to 83% by 2035, and reaching 95.1% by 2040. The outlook relies on sustained emissions balancing between 2030 and 2032 and continued alignment of national policies.
Europe’s electric shift accelerates.
From a broader perspective, the shift toward electric mobility reflects a convergence of climate goals, technological cost declines, and supply‑chain adaptations. As lithium prices fall and manufacturers curb internal‑combustion engine output to avoid emission penalties, the market is likely to favor EVs, even if policy timelines shift.