The US new-car market is forecast to see moderate growth in June, with total new-vehicle sales projected to reach 1,363,800 units. This equates to a 3.6% year-on-year increase, according to the latest forecast from JD Power.
Total new-vehicle sales in the second quarter of 2026 are projected to reach 4,226,600 units, an increase of 0.7% from the same period in 2025. The researchers at JD Power expect the seasonally adjusted annualised rate to hit 16.5 million units, up from 12 months prior.
They expect new-vehicle retail sales to hit 1,114,700 units in June, up 2.7% year on year. It is 7% higher without adjusting for selling days.
The SAAR is forecast to reach 13.7 million units, an increase of 0.5 million compared with June 2025. However, retail sales are expected to decline 0.2% in the second quarter, falling 4.1% across the first half of 2026.
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Year-on-year comparisons remain impacted by unusual conditions recorded in 2025. Then, consumers were reacting to the perceived risk of higher prices from vehicle tariffs. As a result, the subsequent volatility makes simple year-on-year comparison difficult.
Thomas King, president of OEM solutions at JD Power, confirmed that sales in March and April of 2025 were inflated as consumers rushed to showrooms and ‘pulled ahead’ their purchases ahead of anticipated tariffs.
This explains the growth in retail sales in June compared to a year ago. The decline in retail sales is notable but not considered alarming, as it is more than offset by rising fleet sales. Supply constraints on several of the best-selling vehicles in the market account for most of the decline. Macroeconomic uncertainty, higher fuel prices, and persistent affordability challenges present headwinds to new vehicle demand.
Affordability continues to act as a key constraint. The average transaction price has climbed to $46,387. Average monthly payments are expected to reach a record, driven by lower trade-in equity.
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Many buyers are carrying negative equity on their trade-in, with 29.5% of trade-ins having negative equity in June, up 1.4 percentage points from a year ago. As a result of wider affordability pressures, manufacturers are pushing discounts to maintain buyer interest, with average incentive spending per vehicle trending towards $3,217, a 12.7% increase from a year ago.
Incentives as a percentage of MSRP are expected to hit 6.2% in June, up 0.6pp from June 2025. Non-electric vehicles have seen incentive spending per vehicle trend towards $2,970, marking an 18.6% increase from a year prior. Electric vehicles have also seen increased incentive spend, with incentive spending on EVs expected to reach $9,824 per unit, up 3.1% from last year.
Longer-term loan terms are becoming an increasingly attractive option for consumers to bridge the affordability gap, with 13.6% of loans now extending to 84 months or more. Retail sales volume growth with slightly higher transaction prices means that total retail consumer expenditure is projected to rise to $49.4 billion, an increase of $4.2 billion compared with June 2025.
The combination of raised fuel prices and increased availability of vehicles with hybrid powertrains is driving a shift in the sales mix, with the Hybrid share of retail sales climbing to 16%, up 2.3pp. Meanwhile, the EV share has softened to 7.4%, following the elimination of federal EV credits, which has impacted demand for electric vehicles, as seen in the sales performance of certain manufacturers.